Ukraine's 2,500-km deep strikes keep Russian refinery belt burning as Algeria votes to send troops to Niger for first time since 1973

Deep strikes resumed after a two-day pause, with Ukraine hitting Siberian industry 2,500 km from the border and Belgorod city overnight Oct 24-25, while a 10-hour fire surge lit the Southern Russia refinery belt. Starlink/Starshield access was claimed restored to >400 km/h on Oct 24, but Musk on Oct 25 reframed the prior 160 km/h cap as enforcement of civilian terms and warned violation will end service, leaving US control unresolved. No new Black Sea merchant sinking was reported since the fourth sinking off Romania Oct 23.

Named places and things the reports say something dated about. Each line gives who says it: “claimed struck” is a party's own word, and only a second source turns it into reported or confirmed damage.

• 24 Oct● Omsky Kauchuk petrochemical plant (refinery) · Claimed struck · said by Daily intelligence report kyivindependent.com ↗ tass.com ↗
• 24 Oct● Ozon logistics hub (fuel depot) · Damage confirmed · said by governor Vitaliy Khotsenko kyivindependent.com ↗ tass.com ↗
• 24 Oct● Ozon logistics hub (fuel depot) · Claimed struck · said by Daily intelligence report kyivindependent.com ↗ tass.com ↗

A Pulse is a 0 to 100 gauge of how tense one specific situation is, from calm at the bottom to extreme at the top. It is reassessed whenever new evidence arrives, so the number moves with events.

Outlook Mutual long-range strikes are likely to continue at elevated tempo after the Omsk/Belgorod hits and refinery-belt fire surge, with energy and logistics nodes the probable next targets. The Starlink/Starshield control dispute is likely to stay unresolved: even if >400 km/h connectivity holds, Musk's civilian-use red line and his attribution of limits to US military/President keeps political risk high. Diplomacy is unlikely to de-escalate fighting before the early-November Abu Dhabi negotiator meeting and the Nov 18-19 APEC window for a proposed Trump-Putin-Xi summit.

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Gaza strikes killed seven Palestinians on Oct 25, including three at a Gaza university, showing lethal operations continue despite a nominal year-old ceasefire. In the West Bank, the Oct 23 Hebron checkpoint attack response has hardened into sealed homes for demolition, curfews and reported hospital delays, with no confirmed West Bank-wide lockdown and no new UK E1 sanctions designations.

1. 24 Oct4Raids detain dozens across West Bank Oct 23-24 as harvest-season farmer attacks continue›

A Pulse is a 0 to 100 gauge of how tense one specific situation is, from calm at the bottom to extreme at the top. It is reassessed whenever new evidence arrives, so the number moves with events.

Outlook Further Hebron home demolitions and displacement orders are likely in coming days as sealed homes move toward demolition, and Gaza strikes are likely to continue at low-level lethality. A full West Bank-wide closure at ~1,000 checkpoints remains possible but unconfirmed, and UK E1 sanctions designations remain unlikely in the immediate term without new guidance. Assessment rests on reported IDF sealing actions, continued Gaza casualty reports, and absence of new UK designations since Oct 19.

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Taiwan's rare-earth decoupling push is the only new move since Oct. 24, with a 500-ton demonstration plant planned by 2028 and TSMC exploring rare-earth-free motors to blunt China's 2025 export controls. The Strait stayed instrument-quiet on Oct. 24 and no new financial or coast-guard actions were reported, leaving the Oct. 24 battlefield-preparation warning and Oct. 19-20 market defenses as the standing picture. We are confident on the plant and TSMC plans and Strait quiet (researched and instruments as of Oct. 24).

A Pulse is a 0 to 100 gauge of how tense one specific situation is, from calm at the bottom to extreme at the top. It is reassessed whenever new evidence arrives, so the number moves with events.

Outlook Decoupling efforts are likely to stay in planning and early supplier surveys through 2026, with no near-term change to rare-earth dependence. Strait activity is likely to remain episodic gray-zone presence rather than sustained blockade rehearsal in the next 7-14 days, but a new CGA report of militia-coast guard coordination east of Taiwan would signal rising pressure. Market volatility is likely to track US tech and Fed expectations around the Oct. 27-28 meeting more than cross-Strait moves.

Algeria's upper house unanimously approved on Oct. 25 deploying troops to Niger to secure Sonatrach oil assets, the first foreign deployment since 1973 and a formal break with non-intervention since 1962. The move still needs a two-thirds vote in the lower house expected the same evening to meet Article 91 requirements. Confidence is high on the vote and legal basis; deployment timing and size remain unconfirmed.

A Pulse is a 0 to 100 gauge of how tense one specific situation is, from calm at the bottom to extreme at the top. It is reassessed whenever new evidence arrives, so the number moves with events.

Outlook Lower-house approval is likely given upper-house unanimity and emergency summoning, which would almost certainly authorize deployment, though timing, size and rules of engagement remain undisclosed. Once authorized, deployment to remote Saharan blocks is likely to be limited and defensive initially, but risks entanglement with jihadist groups (JNIM, ISGS) and regional rivalries are likely to grow if forces come under attack. The move is unlikely to reverse AES-ECOWAS dialogue in the near term but could harden AES reliance on non-Western security partners.