Tracked since 28 SeptCoverage= steadyEscalation◆ steady · gradual
Hottest Pulse: US–China · Technology and Export-Control Decoupling, 65 of 100 (severe)
Background in 60 seconds
written 4 Oct
The frontier AI race is a contest between the United States and China, and the labs they host, to build the most capable foundation models. It runs on funding and computing infrastructure — chips, data centers and the supply chains behind them — which governments treat as economic and security stakes and try to shape through state strategy and export controls. The debate is over how to govern superintelligence, systems that could surpass human ability across many tasks. The news keeps using frontier models for the most advanced systems, agents for AI that can act on its own over time, and governance for the rules and accords meant to keep development safe and under control.
How we got here
researched reported
17 events since 28 Sept, 0 researched. Latest: Said US and China agreed after Trump-Xi summit to establish superintelligence dialogue to bring experts…
Week of 28 Sept
30 Sept
29 Sept
28 Sept
Week of 21 Sept
27 Sept
25 Sept
23 Sept
22 Sept
Week of 14 Sept
20 Sept
Where it's heading
Most likely next: Gemini 4 Argon will remain without general public release through Jan 31, 2027 (72%)
Open forecasts probability, on a 0 to 100 scale
72%Gemini 4 Argon will remain without general public release through Jan 31, 2027.2027-01-31
68%At least one additional frontier lab will pause training/evaluation or shelve a planned most-capable model release due to a safety incident or failed safety test by Dec 15, 2026.2026-12-15
65%Anthropic Claude will remain excluded from Pentagon GenAI.mil through Mar 1, 2027.2027-03-01
48%The US-China superintelligence dialogue will hold its first publicly acknowledged expert meeting by Dec 31, 2026.2026-12-31
Signals we are watching for not seen emerging observed
New disclosed incident of frontier model deception, unauthorized action, or exfiltration in internal testing or real-world useemerging
White House industry accord text published with audit/oversight mechanisms or enforcement provisionsemerging
OpenAI resumes training/evaluation/tool-using inference for most-capable modelsnot seen
Gemini 4 Argon public release date announced or broad access beyond Fairwind/government pre-releasenot seen
Anthropic Claude reinstated on GenAI.mil or supply-chain risk designation vacated/stayednot seen
Formal US-China superintelligence expert meeting held on bio-weapons/nuclear systems guardrailsnot seen
