{"data":{"markets":{"open":466,"resolved":66,"void":0},"forecasts":462,"scores":{"resolved_with_forecast":26,"compared":26,"brier_ours":0.2811,"brier_market":0.2287,"brier_ours_all":0.2811,"log_loss_ours":0.882,"log_loss_market":0.6257,"brier_skill":-0.2291,"calibration_ours":[{"low":0,"high":0.1,"n":7,"mean_p":0.046,"hit_rate":0.571},{"low":0.1,"high":0.2,"n":3,"mean_p":0.127,"hit_rate":0},{"low":0.2,"high":0.3,"n":2,"mean_p":0.235,"hit_rate":0.5},{"low":0.3,"high":0.4,"n":2,"mean_p":0.325,"hit_rate":0.5},{"low":0.4,"high":0.5,"n":2,"mean_p":0.475,"hit_rate":0.5},{"low":0.5,"high":0.6,"n":5,"mean_p":0.544,"hit_rate":0.6},{"low":0.8,"high":0.9,"n":4,"mean_p":0.833,"hit_rate":0.75},{"low":0.9,"high":1,"n":1,"mean_p":0.9,"hit_rate":1}],"calibration_market":[{"low":0,"high":0.1,"n":3,"mean_p":0.06,"hit_rate":0},{"low":0.1,"high":0.2,"n":4,"mean_p":0.167,"hit_rate":0.5},{"low":0.2,"high":0.3,"n":2,"mean_p":0.222,"hit_rate":1},{"low":0.3,"high":0.4,"n":4,"mean_p":0.34,"hit_rate":0.5},{"low":0.4,"high":0.5,"n":1,"mean_p":0.41,"hit_rate":0},{"low":0.5,"high":0.6,"n":1,"mean_p":0.595,"hit_rate":0},{"low":0.6,"high":0.7,"n":2,"mean_p":0.673,"hit_rate":0},{"low":0.8,"high":0.9,"n":5,"mean_p":0.843,"hit_rate":0.8},{"low":0.9,"high":1,"n":4,"mean_p":0.94,"hit_rate":1}],"brier_diff_series":[{"n":1,"at":"2026-10-23","diff":0.0893},{"n":2,"at":"2026-10-23","diff":0.1374},{"n":3,"at":"2026-10-25","diff":0.0532},{"n":4,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":0.0814},{"n":5,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":0.0712},{"n":6,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":-0.001},{"n":7,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":-0.0567},{"n":8,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":-0.0612},{"n":9,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":-0.0691},{"n":10,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":-0.085},{"n":11,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":-0.0965},{"n":12,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":-0.0559},{"n":13,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":-0.0349},{"n":14,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":-0.041},{"n":15,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":-0.0379},{"n":16,"at":"2026-10-26","diff":-0.0429},{"n":17,"at":"2026-10-27","diff":-0.0405},{"n":18,"at":"2026-10-27","diff":-0.0372},{"n":19,"at":"2026-10-27","diff":-0.0529},{"n":20,"at":"2026-10-27","diff":-0.0499},{"n":21,"at":"2026-10-28","diff":-0.0319},{"n":22,"at":"2026-10-28","diff":0.0108},{"n":23,"at":"2026-10-28","diff":0.019},{"n":24,"at":"2026-10-28","diff":0.0182},{"n":25,"at":"2026-10-30","diff":0.0543},{"n":26,"at":"2026-10-30","diff":0.0524}],"yes_rate":0.5385,"mean_forecast":0.3738,"verdict":"Too early to say: 26 resolved markets compared, 30 needed before these numbers mean anything. Treat every score here as noise."},"portfolio":{"bankroll":10000,"open":11,"settled":0,"staked_open":5000,"realised_pnl":0,"unrealised_pnl":-272.61,"total_pnl":-272.61,"return_on_bankroll":-0.0273,"wins":0,"losses":0,"hit_rate":null},"trader":{"summary":{"equity":9790.88,"pnl":-209.12,"cash":4955.13,"realised":-44.87,"unrealised":-164.25,"open":14,"buys":15,"sells":1,"closed":1,"wins":0,"losses":1,"hit_rate":0},"rule":{"bankroll":10000,"open":11,"settled":0,"staked_open":5000,"realised_pnl":0,"unrealised_pnl":-272.61,"total_pnl":-272.61,"return_on_bankroll":-0.0273,"wins":0,"losses":0,"hit_rate":null},"curve":[{"day":"2026-10-18","flat":10000,"trader":9847.09,"rule":9773.74},{"day":"2026-10-19","flat":10000,"trader":9836.88,"rule":9800.94},{"day":"2026-10-20","flat":10000,"trader":9950.51,"rule":9914.37},{"day":"2026-10-21","flat":10000,"trader":9904.71,"rule":9813.18},{"day":"2026-10-22","flat":10000,"trader":9792.81,"rule":9812.5},{"day":"2026-10-23","flat":10000,"trader":9724.39,"rule":9672.95},{"day":"2026-10-24","flat":10000,"trader":9908.02,"rule":9821.19},{"day":"2026-10-25","flat":10000,"trader":9872.22,"rule":9759.21},{"day":"2026-10-26","flat":10000,"trader":9970.57,"rule":9881.85},{"day":"2026-10-27","flat":10000,"trader":9944.63,"rule":9586.21},{"day":"2026-10-28","flat":10000,"trader":9953.53,"rule":9946.92},{"day":"2026-10-29","flat":10000,"trader":9909.49,"rule":9989.81},{"day":"2026-10-30","flat":10000,"trader":9806.71,"rule":9882.7},{"day":"2026-10-31","flat":10000,"trader":9785.7,"rule":9679}],"open_positions":[{"market_id":"1469737","question":"Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026","ends":"2026-12-31","side":"no","shares":3610.11,"entry":0.1385,"now":0.1435,"cost":500,"value":518.05,"pnl":18.05,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"Market says Mojtaba is near-certain leader but we have no evidence he has taken de facto control. Desk sees only 15% chance. Keeping our NO position and waiting for real succession evidence.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.15,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2026-12-31T17:00","hours_left":1479.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"3128886","question":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","shares":746.83,"entry":0.6695,"now":0.5705,"cost":500,"value":426.06,"pnl":-73.94,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"Market prices 35% chance US ends blockade soon, desk sees 8% with no sign of US shift. No new evidence to trade, so hold NO.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.08,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2027-01-01T04:59","hours_left":1491.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"1090496","question":"NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","shares":662.25,"entry":0.755,"now":0.835,"cost":500,"value":552.98,"pnl":52.98,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"Market still prices 16% for a direct clash, desk sees 4% and we have no reports of qualifying force. Hold NO.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.04,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2027-01-01T04:59","hours_left":1491.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"665374","question":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","shares":526.32,"entry":0.855,"now":0.825,"cost":450,"value":434.21,"pnl":-15.79,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"Market prices 18% for a US invasion of Iran, desk sees 2% with no evidence of such an offensive. Hold NO.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.015,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2027-01-01T04:59","hours_left":1491.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"1107878","question":"Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","shares":427.81,"entry":0.935,"now":0.945,"cost":400,"value":404.28,"pnl":4.28,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"Small gap and no evidence of invasion plans. No edge after costs, so hold NO.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.03,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2027-01-01T04:59","hours_left":1491.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"1535973","question":"Iran leadership change by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","shares":391.06,"entry":0.895,"now":0.845,"cost":350,"value":330.45,"pnl":-19.55,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"Desk and market are close (18% vs 14%) and we have no reporting on Mojtaba losing power. No reason to change NO position.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.18,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2027-01-01T04:59","hours_left":1491.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"2696747","question":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","shares":395.48,"entry":0.885,"now":0.855,"cost":350,"value":338.14,"pnl":-11.86,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"Market 12% vs desk 8% for a final deal, no evidence of a signed instrument. Gap too small to trade, hold NO.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.08,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2027-01-01T04:59","hours_left":1491.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"1397281","question":"Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-kostyantynivka-by","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","shares":395.48,"entry":0.885,"now":0.895,"cost":350,"value":353.95,"pnl":3.95,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"Market 12% vs desk 7% for full capture, no ISW evidence of progress. Small gap, hold NO.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.07,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2027-01-01T04:59","hours_left":1491.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"3215073","question":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","shares":374.33,"entry":0.935,"now":0.915,"cost":350,"value":342.51,"pnl":-7.49,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"Desk sees 4% vs market 10% for a rare island handover in 64 days, but we have no relevant documents to check. Holding our NO keeps the small edge without adding on thin evidence.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.04,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2027-01-01T04:59","hours_left":1491.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"2757806","question":"Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466","ends":"2026-11-01","side":"no","shares":368.42,"entry":0.95,"now":0.9915,"cost":350,"value":365.29,"pnl":15.29,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"Desk 3% vs market 4% is only a 1-point gap with 3 days left and no documents. No reason to add or exit our NO.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.03,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2026-11-01T03:59","hours_left":26.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"562830","question":"2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ends":"2026-11-04","side":"yes","shares":1052.63,"entry":0.285,"now":0.245,"cost":300,"value":257.89,"pnl":-42.11,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"We already own YES at 28c and market is 26% vs desk 44%. Without any polling in the corpus we cannot say the crowd is wrong, so hold.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.44,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2026-11-04T04:59","hours_left":99.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"3501951","question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765","ends":"2026-12-01","side":"yes","shares":4545.45,"entry":0.055,"now":0.055,"cost":250,"value":250,"pnl":0,"opened":"2026-10-18","rationale":"Desk 14% vs market 6% suggests YES is cheap, but we have no Portwatch data in hand. Hold our YES position.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.14,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2026-12-01T04:59","hours_left":747.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"},{"market_id":"562828","question":"2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ends":"2026-11-04","side":"no","shares":519.48,"entry":0.385,"now":0.305,"cost":200,"value":158.44,"pnl":-41.56,"opened":"2026-10-19","rationale":"Market says 66% for a Democratic sweep while desk says 11% on base rates alone with no data. We hold our NO but cannot add without evidence of what the crowd sees.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.11,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2026-11-04T04:59","hours_left":99.5,"now_at":"2026-10-31T00:32"},{"market_id":"678777","question":"Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","shares":328.59,"entry":0.4565,"now":0.315,"cost":150,"value":103.5,"pnl":-46.5,"opened":"2026-10-19","rationale":"Desk sees 4% vs market 60% but we have no strike confirmations in the corpus. Hold our NO; the gap is a flag to look, not to add blindly.","rationale_on":"2026-10-28","ours":0.04,"evidence":"gap","trail":[],"ends_at":"2027-01-01T04:59","hours_left":1491.5,"now_at":"2026-10-30T23:51"}],"log":[{"id":"td-56d1ec06eb835f","market_id":"4641065","question":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt","day":"2026-10-19","action":"sell","side":"no","price":0.17,"stake":305.13,"shares":1794.87,"pnl":-44.87,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"We hold NO on ceasefire continuing but market 82% vs our 78% leaves almost no edge and we are down. Better to free capital for much larger mispricings elsewhere.","ours":0.78,"market":0.82,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-6818f7b6a95423","market_id":"678777","question":"Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026","day":"2026-10-19","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.4565,"stake":150,"shares":328.59,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market says 55% US will strike 8 countries this year vs our 8%. History says 3-5 is normal and 73 days is too short to add 3-4 new countries without major war expansion not seen.","ours":0.08,"market":0.5535,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-67c3522d0501c9","market_id":"562828","question":"2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","day":"2026-10-19","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.385,"stake":200,"shares":519.48,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market 62% for Democrats winning both chambers vs our 18%. House flip is plausible but Senate sweep needs 3-4 seats and is rare. Crowd is pricing a wave with no polling shown.","ours":0.18,"market":0.625,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-355d5ddb4c20a6","market_id":"1469737","question":"Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.1385,"stake":500,"shares":3610.11,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market prices 87% that Mojtaba Khamenei takes power by Dec 31, desk sees 4%. No evidence of succession and state still operating normally under current institutions, market looks to be overreacting to wartime targeting claim.","ours":0.04,"market":0.8715,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-c36a37f0131167","market_id":"3128886","question":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.6695,"stake":500,"shares":746.83,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market gives 34% chance US announces end of blockade by Dec 31, desk 8%. Fighting is escalating in Hormuz and Trump's rejection of Iran's offer to lift blockade suggests market is too optimistic about a quick reversal.","ours":0.08,"market":0.3405,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-6fbba0646b4106","market_id":"1090496","question":"NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.755,"stake":500,"shares":662.25,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market 26% vs desk 8% for direct NATO-Russia clash. Recent Romanian shootdowns were of Russian drones over Black Sea, not direct NATO-Russia force-on-force which rules require, market overstates escalation risk.","ours":0.08,"market":0.255,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-4b4a308679ce68","market_id":"665374","question":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.855,"stake":450,"shares":526.32,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market prices 16% for a US ground invasion to seize Iranian territory in 74 days; base rate is ~1% and current fighting is mines/drones in Hormuz, not invasion prep. Crowd overprices tail risk.","ours":0.02,"market":0.155,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-9a49c2750839d2","market_id":"3501951","question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_yes","side":"yes","price":0.055,"stake":250,"shares":4545.45,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market at 4% implies almost no chance of 60 arrivals/day average, but CENTCOM reports ~57/day already and 43 days remain. Desk sees ~15%, so YES is underpriced.","ours":0.15,"market":0.045,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-91ee9d9d9ba6d8","market_id":"1535973","question":"Iran leadership change by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.895,"stake":350,"shares":391.06,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market at 12% for Supreme Leader removal in 74 days is far above ~1-2% base rate with no coup or resignation evidence. Crowd overprices regime change.","ours":0.03,"market":0.115,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-3587f8e519a791","market_id":"2696747","question":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.885,"stake":350,"shares":395.48,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market at 12% for a signed US-Iran final deal in 74 days while both sides are escalating in Hormuz and blaming each other. Crowd overprices diplomacy.","ours":0.04,"market":0.125,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-8c988a908f5523","market_id":"562830","question":"2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_yes","side":"yes","price":0.285,"stake":300,"shares":1052.63,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market at 28% for R-Senate/D-House vs desk 35%; classic midterm split under R president is underpriced with 16 days to election and no contrary polling shown.","ours":0.35,"market":0.275,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-257c52121ccb0e","market_id":"1107878","question":"Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.935,"stake":400,"shares":427.81,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market at 8% for US invasion of Cuba in 74 days vs ~1% base rate and zero mobilization signals; focus is on Iran, not Cuba. Crowd overprices.","ours":0.01,"market":0.075,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-85f16db100cec6","market_id":"1397281","question":"Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-kostyantynivka-by","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.885,"stake":350,"shares":395.48,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market prices 12% for Russia taking all of Kostyantynivka in 74 days vs our 7%. No evidence of encirclement and advances remain slow, so the crowd looks too high.","ours":0.07,"market":0.125,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-0a804c5a4f387e","market_id":"3215073","question":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.935,"stake":350,"shares":374.33,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market at 8% for Iran losing Kharg Island vs our 2%. Taking a defended oil island requires an invasion and occupation, not just mines and naval presence now seen.","ours":0.02,"market":0.075,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-9dbcbcf39b841a","market_id":"2757806","question":"Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.95,"stake":350,"shares":368.42,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market at 6% for Iran starting a mandatory Hormuz toll in 13 days vs our 2%. Iran has never done this and it would invite direct US response; current escalation is mines, not fees.","ours":0.02,"market":0.06,"clips":[]},{"id":"td-8112eb45a96540","market_id":"4641065","question":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt","day":"2026-10-18","action":"buy_no","side":"no","price":0.195,"stake":350,"shares":1794.87,"pnl":null,"result":"","outcome":"","rationale":"Market at 82% for no US strike on Iran through Oct 31 vs our 78%. 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Iran before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","stake":500,"entry":0.855,"ours":0.02,"market_at_open":0.155,"market_now":0.175,"value":479.53,"pnl":-20.47,"opened":"2026-10-18","theaters":["thr_spot_eu_24_hour_delay_of_gaza_and_west_bank_satellite","thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"1469737","question":"Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026","ends":"2026-12-31","side":"no","stake":500,"entry":0.1385,"ours":0.04,"market_at_open":0.8715,"market_now":0.8565,"value":527.08,"pnl":27.08,"opened":"2026-10-18","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"682708","question":"Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","ends":"2026-10-28","side":"no","stake":500,"entry":0.478,"ours":0.04,"market_at_open":0.532,"market_now":0.3365,"value":697.7,"pnl":197.7,"opened":"2026-10-18","theaters":["thr_gaza_war_and_unga_diplomatic_fallout"]},{"market_id":"3128886","question":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","stake":500,"entry":0.6695,"ours":0.08,"market_at_open":0.3405,"market_now":0.4295,"value":448.84,"pnl":-51.16,"opened":"2026-10-18","theaters":["thr_spot_eu_24_hour_delay_of_gaza_and_west_bank_satellite","thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"1090496","question":"NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","stake":500,"entry":0.755,"ours":0.08,"market_at_open":0.255,"market_now":0.165,"value":533.11,"pnl":33.11,"opened":"2026-10-18","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"562828","question":"2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ends":"2026-11-04","side":"no","stake":500,"entry":0.385,"ours":0.18,"market_at_open":0.625,"market_now":0.695,"value":396.1,"pnl":-103.9,"opened":"2026-10-18","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"562831","question":"2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ends":"2026-11-04","side":"yes","stake":500,"entry":0.095,"ours":0.32,"market_at_open":0.085,"market_now":0.055,"value":342.11,"pnl":-157.89,"opened":"2026-10-18","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"682705","question":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","ends":"2026-10-28","side":"yes","stake":500,"entry":0.295,"ours":0.47,"market_at_open":0.285,"market_now":0.42,"value":686.44,"pnl":186.44,"opened":"2026-10-18","theaters":["thr_gaza_war_and_unga_diplomatic_fallout"]},{"market_id":"3399459","question":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","ends":"2026-10-31","side":"no","stake":488.17,"entry":0.155,"ours":0.68,"market_at_open":0.855,"market_now":0.9745,"value":130.7,"pnl":-357.47,"opened":"2026-10-18","theaters":["thr_gaza_war_and_unga_diplomatic_fallout"]},{"market_id":"1439093","question":"US x Cuba military clash in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-cuba-military-clash-in-2026","ends":"2027-01-01","side":"no","stake":260.51,"entry":0.9,"ours":0.01,"market_at_open":0.11,"market_now":0.18,"value":234.46,"pnl":-26.05,"opened":"2026-10-19","theaters":["thr_us_iran_houthi_confrontation_over_hormuz_and_red","thr_us_china_summit_and_strategic_competition","thr_spot_china_central_asia_railway_and_uzbekistan_ties","thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite","thr_gaza_war_and_unga_diplomatic_fallout"]},{"market_id":"3501951","question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765","ends":"2026-12-01","side":"yes","stake":251.32,"entry":0.055,"ours":0.15,"market_at_open":0.045,"market_now":0.055,"value":251.32,"pnl":0,"opened":"2026-10-18","theaters":["thr_us_iran_houthi_confrontation_over_hormuz_and_red"]}],"disagreements":[{"market_id":"1568406","question":"US military draft authorized in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026","ours":0.99,"market":0.0245,"gap":0.966,"made_at":"2026-10-27","rationale":"Base rate for US draft authorization in any given year is <1% - no induction authority has been enacted since 1973 despite multiple wars. With 65 days left to Dec 31 2026 [calendar:cal-27b039d0743c635e] and zero evidence in the corpus of any pending draft legislation, hearings, or administration proposal [entity:country:US], there is no earned reason to move above base rate. A major war mobilization or filed bill advancing in Congress would raise the estimate.","theaters":["thr_spot_eu_24_hour_delay_of_gaza_and_west_bank_satellite","thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"665270","question":"Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026","ours":0.99,"market":0.034,"gap":0.956,"made_at":"2026-10-25","rationale":"Base rate for a sitting US president visiting Taiwan is ~0% since 1979 due to One-China policy; no president has done so. With 67 days left in 2026 and no evidence of planning or announcement [calendar:cal-dc16889db9d81b49], only a highly disruptive break from precedent would cause YES. Evidence is a gap on travel intent [entity:country:TW] provides no signal. Would raise probability only on official White House/Trump confirmation of a Taiwan stop.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5332539","question":"Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-3rd-place","ours":0.12,"market":0.9905,"gap":-0.871,"made_at":"2026-10-26","rationale":"Base rate for any single named party/coalition to finish exactly third in a fragmented Knesset election is low (~10-15%). Election is scheduled Oct 27, 2026 [calendar:cal-4707291295a5d0f5] with resolution Oct 28, but desk corpus provides no polling, seat projections, or party standing for Together [entity:country:IL]. With no evidence Together is positioned for third, stay near base rate; would move sharply if polling showed Together in 3rd-place contention.","theaters":["thr_gaza_war_and_unga_diplomatic_fallout"]},{"market_id":"3089431","question":"Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-vodianske-byptptpt-20260724162613570","ours":0.15,"market":0.991,"gap":-0.841,"made_at":"2026-10-21","rationale":"Base rate for Russia capturing any specific Donetsk settlement intersection in a 71-day window is low (~10-20%) given slow, attritional advances. No evidence in the desk record mentions Vodianske (48.41N 37.10E, between Pokrovsk and Dobropillia) or an advance toward it; the only nearby data point is contested claims over Dobropillia [st_0d22039976c5] and NATO assessment that fortified Donetsk cities remain very difficult to capture [st_22cdd966ff38], while general combat intensity remains critical [theater:thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite] but not location-specific. With no signal of imminent capture and short time to Dec 31, stay near base rate. Would raise sharply on ISW shading moving within ~5km or confirmed Russian control of adjacent settlements.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"2110578","question":"Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-likud-of-seats","ours":0.22,"market":0.9875,"gap":-0.768,"made_at":"2026-10-26","rationale":"Base rate for any specific 5-seat window (25-29 of 120) is low (~15-20%) and Likud historically anchors near 30-32 seats, making 25-29 a modest decline. Evidence provides only profile titles dated 2026-10-24 with no polling numbers or projections, so cannot move far from base rate. Election is 1 day away (Oct 27) but without seat forecasts the 25-29 outcome remains plausible but not favored; concrete final polls would sharply update this.","theaters":["thr_gaza_war_and_unga_diplomatic_fallout"]},{"market_id":"5167211","question":"Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-on-october-2026","ours":0.04,"market":0.803,"gap":-0.763,"made_at":"2026-10-28","rationale":"Base rate for a Saudi-initiated air/missile strike on Yemen on any single specific day is low (single-digit percent) under the post-2022 truce, even with renewed Yemen offensive activity. Evidence shows only generic context - a Oct 16 Saudi spokesperson mention of Yemen/airstrikes [statement:st_05848a5fee5b] and Oct 4 airstrikes in Sanaa amid Yemen offensive [dev:6869baa8794c] - but nothing indicating a planned Saudi strike on Oct 30 [calendar:cal-28307562cc4cc5fb]. With 2 days to resolution and no trigger signal, stay near base rate; a confirmed Saudi MOD strike order would raise probability sharply.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"1469737","question":"Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026","ours":0.15,"market":0.8565,"gap":-0.707,"made_at":"2026-10-26","rationale":"Base rate for any specific successor becoming head of state in a 66-day window is low (~5-10%). Ali Khamenei's confirmed killing in US strikes [clm_92bdd0ab32][clm_4c6c678a1b] creates a vacancy that raises Mojtaba's chance as the long-speculated hereditary successor, but there is zero evidence he has assumed de facto control and succession in Iran is by Assembly of Experts, not automatic, with strong anti-hereditary and IRGC competition. With no signal of Mojtaba exercising primary authority by Oct 26, stay well below 50%.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"678777","question":"Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026","ours":0.04,"market":0.685,"gap":-0.645,"made_at":"2026-10-27","rationale":"Base rate for US striking 8 distinct countries in one year is ~1-2% (normal years 2-4 countries). Corpus shows heightened US-Iran-Houthi confrontation in Oct 2026 but no confirmed US drone/missile/air strikes on any country's soil, let alone 8. With 65 days left, reaching 8 would require an unprecedented broadening of targets far beyond historical pattern.","theaters":["thr_sudan_civil_war_and_us_visa_leverage","thr_us_iran_houthi_confrontation_over_hormuz_and_red","thr_us_china_summit_and_strategic_competition","thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"3215008","question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632","ours":0.08,"market":0.705,"gap":-0.625,"made_at":"2026-10-26","rationale":"Base rate for a 25bp hike at any single FOMC meeting is low (~5-10%), as most meetings result in hold/cut and hikes require sustained inflation pressure. Evidence provides no Fed guidance, inflation, or labor data for late 2026, only that FOMC holds eight meetings per year [claim:prof_bd540e7822:clm_b432821266] and a stale June pricing of a 25bp hike at 17.5 [claim:prof_bd540e7822:clm_4dc36bf9b1]. With 44 days to Dec 9 and no hawkish signal in the desk corpus, stay near base rate; strong upside inflation surprise or hawkish FOMC minutes would raise the estimate.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"2373683","question":"Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-bilytske-by-june-30","ours":0.12,"market":0.74,"gap":-0.62,"made_at":"2026-10-28","rationale":"Base rate for Russia capturing the entirety of a specific Donetsk municipality in a 64-day window is low (single digits to low teens) given slow, grinding advances. Evidence provides no ISW map status, frontline proximity, or offensive indicators for Bilytske itself, only generic market-resolution calendars and mis-located Pokrovsk/Mordoviya clashes. With 64 days left and no signal of imminent encirclement, stay near base rate; ISW showing Russian forces at/inside Bilytske would raise probability sharply.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"2365031","question":"Trump meets with Putin by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/trump-meets-with-putin-by","ours":0.22,"market":0.835,"gap":-0.615,"made_at":"2026-10-23","rationale":"Base rate for a Trump-Putin in-person meeting in a 69-day window is low (~10-15%) given rarity and ICC/travel constraints. Evidence raises it modestly: Putin proposed a Trump-Xi-Putin trilateral possibly at APEC Shenzhen Nov 18-19 [claim:clm_625a1a59c0][calendar:cal-81e0c3466371807c] and Witkoff shuttle diplomacy is active [claim:clm_b48cbb3321], with a second window at US-hosted G20 in December [statement:st_87bee7634142]. However the desk's outlook says that summit is unlikely to materialize quickly [theater:thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite], both calendar items are low confidence, Putin is scheduled in St Petersburg Dec 21 [statement:st_d3d26cc8f6ce], and strikes have escalated, keeping near-term meeting odds below 50%.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"3499789","question":"No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-november","ours":0.67,"market":0.093,"gap":0.577,"made_at":"2026-10-28","rationale":"Base rate for RBA Monetary Policy Board meetings is hold/no change (~65-75% historically). Desk corpus has no RBA statement, CPI, labour or guidance for Nov 2-3 meeting [calendar:cal-3a2ff8ba9e236782][calendar:cal-0f1d4f665e346513][entity:country:AU], only calendar placeholders and unrelated GDELT events, so little to move from base rate with 6 days to resolution. Would shift sharply down if fresh inflation or RBA hawkish guidance pointed to a hike.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5611045","question":"Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-wins-the-senate-pending-oil-above-or-below-80-before-the-midterms","ours":0.14,"market":0.7115,"gap":-0.572,"made_at":"2026-10-28","rationale":"Base rate for joint Oil≥$80 and D Senate flip is low: Senate flips requiring +4 seats are rare and oil staying high is not guaranteed. Oil ≥$80 is very likely near-term: Brent $109.55 on Oct 18 and $105.48 Oct 12 with WTI $101.41 Oct 19 on throttled Hormuz flows, so 5 days to Nov 2 leaves little room to fall below $80. D Senate is unlikely: starting 53R-47D, need net +4, map structurally difficult for Democrats, despite one market pricing D Sweep at 66%. Joint ~0.90*0.15 ≈14%.","theaters":["thr_us_iran_houthi_confrontation_over_hormuz_and_red"]},{"market_id":"2591184","question":"Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716","ours":0.28,"market":0.835,"gap":-0.555,"made_at":"2026-10-27","rationale":"Base rate for a deliberate, authorized direct Russia-Ukraine peace/ceasefire meeting in any ~65-day window is low (~20-30%) as such meetings are rare and require political alignment. The desk corpus contains no statements, documents, or calendar items bearing on direct bilateral talks by Dec 31 — all provided items are unrelated market-resolution calendars — so there is no evidence to push above base rate. Short remaining window and strict 'direct, authorized' meeting rule further limit upside; a credible official announcement of talks would raise the estimate sharply.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"2100981","question":"Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-legislative-election-winner","ours":0.45,"market":0.9945,"gap":-0.544,"made_at":"2026-10-27","rationale":"Base rate for Likud winning plurality in recent Israeli elections is ~60-65%. Pre-election polling pointing to a 25-29 seat range for Likud [profile:prof_gap_likud_pre_election_polling_and_seat_projections_] is below historic winning totals and the dedicated Likud vs Yashar polling profile [profile:prof_gap_israeli_legislative_election_polling_and_seat_pr] signals a competitive race for first place, pulling the estimate down toward a coin-flip. With voting occurring today (2026-10-27) and no vote/seat results in evidence, uncertainty remains high.","theaters":["thr_gaza_war_and_unga_diplomatic_fallout"]},{"market_id":"666608","question":"Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026","ours":0.28,"market":0.82,"gap":-0.54,"made_at":"2026-10-23","rationale":"Base rate for a specific Trump-Putin in-person meeting in a ~2-month window is low (~15-20%), as most dated meeting markets resolve NO. Evidence moves it up modestly: Oct 9 Trump-Putin phone call and diesel deal, Putin crediting Trump [st_893eff8bc36d][clm_6cecc6f812], active Witkoff shuttle and Kremlin desire to keep leader channel open [st_ff1f7af13798], and co-location opportunity at APEC Shenzhen Nov 18-19 where both Putin-Xi [st_341654dd9cb8] and Trump-Xi [clm_693c5be17c] meetings are scheduled, plus floated Trump-Xi/Putin summit [theater:thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite][calendar:cal-81e0c3466371807c]. Tempered by resumed large-scale strikes, collapsed energy ceasefire, and desk outlook that a Trump-Putin-Xi summit is unlikely to materialize quickly with only 69 days left. Would raise sharply on confirmed bilateral scheduling for APEC or G20 Miami.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"4118938","question":"Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716","ours":0.23,"market":0.76,"gap":-0.53,"made_at":"2026-10-27","rationale":"Base rate for a deliberate authorized Russia-Ukraine peace meeting in a 34-day window during active war is low (~15-20%). Evidence shows talks are currently stalled but Ukraine signals readiness to restart [st_b16139da3a94] and Russia references peace diplomacy/ceasefire negotiations [st_cc3e335a42db], nudging slightly above base, yet no scheduled meeting is evidenced and strikes continue. A confirmed mediator-backed date or official invitation would sharply raise the estimate.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"4906129","question":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","ours":0.1,"market":0.625,"gap":-0.525,"made_at":"2026-10-21","rationale":"Base rate for US lifting a newly re-imposed (July 13 2026) naval blockade within ~8 months is low (~15%). Current evidence points opposite: Hormuz disruption critical with IRGC mine enforcement, flows collapsed to 2.9mbd and Brent ~$110, and no US diplomatic reply via Qatar/Oman in last 3 days [theater:thr_us_iran_houthi_confrontation_over_hormuz_and_red]. Iran lists lifting the blockade as a condition for reopening Hormuz within 7 days [claim:clm_69eb0f24bb][claim:clm_79b5de3eda] but traffic remains fraction of pre-war levels [claim:clm_5788cbf7ad] with no deal track. 161 days leaves time, but would require sharp de-escalation not now indicated.","theaters":["thr_spot_eu_24_hour_delay_of_gaza_and_west_bank_satellite","thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"5611882","question":"Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-wins-the-senate-pending-oil-below-85-before-the-midterms","ours":0.18,"market":0.696,"gap":-0.516,"made_at":"2026-10-28","rationale":"Base rate for joint Oil>=85 and D Senate gain is low (~10-15%) because Democrats need net +4 from 53R-47D on a structurally difficult R-leaning map. Oil leg is lifted by confirmed spike to $110.85 on Oct 22-23, making >=$85 on Nov 2 plausible (~60-70% to stay above), but Senate leg remains low despite market pricing Democrats Sweep at 66%, which conflicts with structural difficulty. Joint probability stays well below 50%. Would raise sharply if current oil remains >$100 and credible Senate forecasts show D+4 within margin.","theaters":["thr_us_iran_houthi_confrontation_over_hormuz_and_red"]},{"market_id":"1194643","question":"Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election","ours":0.14,"market":0.625,"gap":-0.485,"made_at":"2026-10-25","rationale":"Base rate for any single named candidate winning a multi-candidate Bulgarian presidential election is low (~10-15%). Evidence only confirms the election/market timing on 2026-10-25/26 [calendar:cal-ad0b3262a7f43f16][calendar:cal-aeacb9cf14b5479f][entity:country:BG] with no polling, CEC results, or reporting on Iotova's candidacy or standing [profile:prof_gap_pre_election_polling_and_cec_candidate_list_for_]. With 0 days to resolution and no signal she is frontrunner, stay near base rate; credible polling showing a lead would raise this sharply.","theaters":[]}],"worst_misses":[{"market_id":"2941849","question":"Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-october-20260715203359314","resolved_at":"2026-10-28","outcome":"yes","ours":0.03,"market":0.8165,"made_at":"2026-10-23","brier_ours":0.9409,"brier_market":0.0337,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a 25bp hike at any single BoC meeting is low (~10% unconditional) and lower when the economy is described as weak. Desk knows BoC held at 2.25% on July 15 [claim:clm_31a17da24b] calling economy 'weak but improving' [claim:clm_0094708c8f] and expecting inflation to ease [claim:clm_a4673ea2fb], which points to hold/cut not hike. With 4 days to Oct 28 and no hawkish evidence provided, move stays near base rate on the low side. Would raise sharply on new CPI/BoC guidance signaling tightening.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5167210","question":"Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-on-october-2026","resolved_at":"2026-10-30","outcome":"yes","ours":0.03,"market":0.855,"made_at":"2026-10-27","brier_ours":0.9409,"brier_market":0.021,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a Saudi qualifying strike (air or surface-to-surface) on a single specific day during the current truce period is low single-digits. Desk corpus contains no claims, statements, or events indicating an imminent Saudi operation against Yemen on Oct 29 [entity:country:SA][entity:country:YE], only generic market-resolution calendars [calendar:cal-98f66b46fdfe9ac5] and an unrelated Tehran clash [event:conflict:cx-75a3ee3090da9568]. With 2 days to resolution and no trigger evidence, stay near base rate.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"3741671","question":"Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-any-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260819","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"yes","ours":0.08,"market":0.175,"made_at":"2026-10-21","brier_ours":0.8464,"brier_market":0.6806,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic meeting in any 10-day window is low (~5-10%); status quo is no talks. Evidence shows escalation not diplomacy: Oct 19-20 strikes damaged >10 energy facilities and 550k families cut off with 76 hits in a week and energy ceasefire collapsed, Pulse Diplomatic Rupture 62/severe with no announced meeting or mediator track in evidence. With only 10 days to Oct 31 and no calendar/statement signaling talks, stay near base rate; a sudden US/Turkey-mediated contact would raise probability.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite","thr_sudan_civil_war_and_us_visa_leverage"]},{"market_id":"4824602","question":"Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/serbia-parliamentary-election-winner-2026","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"yes","ours":0.08,"market":0.325,"made_at":"2026-10-22","brier_ours":0.8464,"brier_market":0.4556,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for any opposition list winning most seats vs SNS in Serbia is very low (~5-10%) - SNS has won every parliamentary election since 2012 with majorities. Evidence confirms SNS and allies are the incumbent bloc facing Students Win [clm_bf6a6600bd] in a 250-seat d'Hondt PR election needing 126 for majority [clm_b0e90d64bf] on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1c8c8b4a31f51c7a], with structural media bias alleged to favor the Vučić-led SNS list [clm_0c26964011]. No evidence provided shows Students Win leading in polls or seats with 3 days to go. Would need credible polling showing Students Win plurality to move materially above base rate.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"4824600","question":"Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/serbia-parliamentary-election-winner-2026","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"no","ours":0.82,"market":0.675,"made_at":"2026-10-22","brier_ours":0.6724,"brier_market":0.4556,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for SNS winning most seats is very high - it has won every Serbian parliamentary election since 2012, usually with outright majorities under the 250-seat d'Hondt PR system [clm_b0e90d64bf]. The list in the question is confirmed as the SNS-led 'Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija' [clm_ff6d68151e] contesting the snap election on 2026-10-25 [calendar:cal-1c8c8b4a31f51c7a] called after Vučić's resignation [clm_b8bb8e8cae]. No evidence in the desk record points to a polling surge, united opposition lead, or cancellation that would overturn incumbency advantage with 3 days left; credible polls showing opposition ahead would lower this.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5340072","question":"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-margin-of-victory","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"yes","ours":0.25,"market":0.175,"made_at":"2026-10-22","brier_ours":0.5625,"brier_market":0.6806,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for any specific narrow-win bracket (<4% for a specific candidate) is low - unconditional ~20-25% even in polarized Brazil, since it requires both winning and a close margin. Evidence confirms only that the Oct 25 runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro and is roughly even, with no polling on margin provided, so little to move from base rate. With 3 days to election, a Lula win by <4% remains one of several plausible outcomes but not the modal one.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"3187537","question":"Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-january-31","resolved_at":"2026-10-25","outcome":"yes","ours":0.32,"market":0.24,"made_at":"2026-10-23","brier_ours":0.4624,"brier_market":0.5776,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for an exiled/hiding opposition figure physically re-entering Venezuela in a 69-day window is low (~10%). Evidence suggests a claimed US intervention/capture of Venezuela's leadership on Oct 15 [st_68e25d1020f6], condemned by Russia [st_79d8cdf6133e] and described as invasion [st_760ec84065ec], which if true would sharply raise return likelihood. But these are delegate statements, not confirmed credible reporting of regime change or of Machado's location/plans, and no evidence shows she is poised to enter, so move only modestly above base rate. Would rise sharply with confirmed Maduro removal and Machado departure announcement.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"2941850","question":"Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-october-20260715203359314","resolved_at":"2026-10-28","outcome":"no","ours":0.6,"market":0.1765,"made_at":"2026-10-23","brier_ours":0.36,"brier_market":0.0312,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a Bank of Canada meeting to result in 'no change' is high (~60-70%) as holds are the modal outcome. The only relevant evidence is the prior hold at 2.25% on July 15 [claim:clm_31a17da24b] with economy described as weak but improving [claim:clm_0094708c8f] and inflation expected to ease [claim:clm_a4673ea2fb], which does not signal a clear cut/hike bias. Desk record contains no BoC guidance, forecasts, or data for October and Turkey-Canada statements are irrelevant, so stay near base rate; fresh CPI or BoC speech would move this materially.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"601819","question":"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"yes","ours":0.48,"market":0.205,"made_at":"2026-10-25","brier_ours":0.2704,"brier_market":0.632,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for an incumbent in a runoff is near 50%. Evidence shows Lula trailed Flávio Bolsonaro by ~2% in Oct 4 first round and polls were neck-and-neck nine days before Oct 25 runoff [dev:d3dc3fe6ea61][entity:person:luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva], with resolution due Oct 26 [calendar:cal-6394fd15cba7163f]. Slight underdog status from first-round deficit offsets incumbency, leaving a toss-up slightly below 50%. Actual Oct 25 vote count would move this sharply.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"601826","question":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"no","ours":0.5,"market":0.8005,"made_at":"2026-10-25","brier_ours":0.25,"brier_market":0.6408,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for a two-candidate runoff is ~50%. Evidence shows Oct 25 runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro with first-round ~2% lead for Flavio but current polls neck-and-neck after Lula trailed [dev:d3dc3fe6ea61][claim:prof_intel_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low_daily_20261017:clm_996d55c6cd], implying no clear favorite on election day. With voting today and no results in evidence, probability stays near coin-flip; official TSE count would resolve uncertainty.","theaters":[]}],"market_beat_us":14,"resolved":[{"market_id":"6027089","question":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","resolved_at":"2026-10-30","outcome":"yes","ours":0.9,"market":0.94,"made_at":"2026-10-25","brier_ours":0.01,"brier_market":0.0036,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a short 2-day continuation of an existing Israel-Iran ceasefire is high (~90%+), as direct air/missile strikes are rare events. The desk corpus provides no evidence of a qualifying strike or breakdown [entity:country:IR][entity:country:IL], so we stay near the base rate. A credible report of an imminent strike or a strike since market creation would sharply lower the probability.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5167210","question":"Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-on-october-2026","resolved_at":"2026-10-30","outcome":"yes","ours":0.03,"market":0.855,"made_at":"2026-10-27","brier_ours":0.9409,"brier_market":0.021,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a Saudi qualifying strike (air or surface-to-surface) on a single specific day during the current truce period is low single-digits. Desk corpus contains no claims, statements, or events indicating an imminent Saudi operation against Yemen on Oct 29 [entity:country:SA][entity:country:YE], only generic market-resolution calendars [calendar:cal-98f66b46fdfe9ac5] and an unrelated Tehran clash [event:conflict:cx-75a3ee3090da9568]. With 2 days to resolution and no trigger evidence, stay near base rate.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"2589813","question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","resolved_at":"2026-10-28","outcome":"no","ours":0.03,"market":0.045,"made_at":"2026-10-26","brier_ours":0.0009,"brier_market":0.002,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for a 25bp hike at a single FOMC meeting in the 2025-2026 cycle is low single-digits; hikes are rare outside tightening cycles and most meetings are hold/cut. Calendar confirms the October 2026 meeting is Oct 28 [calendar:cal-0e65b39517b303c2][event:calendar:cal-0e65b39517b303c2] but the desk has no inflation, labor, or Fed hawkish guidance pointing to a hike. With 2 days to resolution, a surprise hike would require an unseen shock, so stay near base rate.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"2589812","question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","resolved_at":"2026-10-28","outcome":"yes","ours":0.55,"market":0.945,"made_at":"2026-10-26","brier_ours":0.2025,"brier_market":0.003,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for 'no change' at a given FOMC meeting is ~55-65% historically; holds are more common than moves. Desk evidence only confirms the meeting is scheduled 2026-10-28 [calendar:cal-0e65b39517b303c2] with no data on inflation, labor, or Fed guidance to justify a cut/hike. With 2 days to resolution and no signal to move from base rate, a hold remains the slight favorite; explicit Fed communication or futures pricing would change the estimate materially.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"2941849","question":"Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-october-20260715203359314","resolved_at":"2026-10-28","outcome":"yes","ours":0.03,"market":0.8165,"made_at":"2026-10-23","brier_ours":0.9409,"brier_market":0.0337,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a 25bp hike at any single BoC meeting is low (~10% unconditional) and lower when the economy is described as weak. Desk knows BoC held at 2.25% on July 15 [claim:clm_31a17da24b] calling economy 'weak but improving' [claim:clm_0094708c8f] and expecting inflation to ease [claim:clm_a4673ea2fb], which points to hold/cut not hike. With 4 days to Oct 28 and no hawkish evidence provided, move stays near base rate on the low side. Would raise sharply on new CPI/BoC guidance signaling tightening.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"2941850","question":"Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-october-20260715203359314","resolved_at":"2026-10-28","outcome":"no","ours":0.6,"market":0.1765,"made_at":"2026-10-23","brier_ours":0.36,"brier_market":0.0312,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a Bank of Canada meeting to result in 'no change' is high (~60-70%) as holds are the modal outcome. The only relevant evidence is the prior hold at 2.25% on July 15 [claim:clm_31a17da24b] with economy described as weak but improving [claim:clm_0094708c8f] and inflation expected to ease [claim:clm_a4673ea2fb], which does not signal a clear cut/hike bias. Desk record contains no BoC guidance, forecasts, or data for October and Turkey-Canada statements are irrelevant, so stay near base rate; fresh CPI or BoC speech would move this materially.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5686977","question":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt","resolved_at":"2026-10-27","outcome":"yes","ours":0.85,"market":0.875,"made_at":"2026-10-20","brier_ours":0.0225,"brier_market":0.0156,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a US direct strike on Iran in any 4-day window is very low (~5-10% even in crises), so YES (no qualifying strike) is the default. Evidence shows critical but stable confrontation: Hormuz mine enforcement and throttled flows persist with no new US reply via Qatar/Oman and no formal US decision to join strikes in last 3 days, and ADSB shows 13 military aircraft over Gulf/Hormuz below 14-day median peak of 15, indicating no surge. Short window to Oct 24 23:59 Iran time leaves little time for escalation absent a trigger; a new UKMTO mine confirmation, Houthi mass-casualty strike on Saudi/Aramco, or US force surge would raise NO risk.","theaters":["thr_us_iran_houthi_confrontation_over_hormuz_and_red","thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite","thr_sudan_civil_war_and_us_visa_leverage"]},{"market_id":"4890265","question":"Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory","resolved_at":"2026-10-27","outcome":"no","ours":0.14,"market":0.595,"made_at":"2026-10-25","brier_ours":0.0196,"brier_market":0.354,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for a specific candidate winning a presidential first round by a specific 10-point margin window (10-20%) is low, roughly 10-15% unconditional. Evidence confirms the election is scheduled today 2026-10-25 [event:calendar:cal-bfe2e30caf51c205] and this margin market resolves today [event:calendar:cal-aeacb9cf14b5479f], but provides no polling, vote shares, or results for Iotova [entity:person:iliana-iotova]. With no signal on whether she wins or by how much, stay near base rate; credible first-round polls showing a 10-20 point lead would raise this sharply.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"3008329","question":"Will Israel election happen as scheduled?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-election-happen-as-scheduled-20260720204824362","resolved_at":"2026-10-27","outcome":"yes","ours":0.84,"market":0.918,"made_at":"2026-10-23","brier_ours":0.0256,"brier_market":0.0067,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a nationwide election scheduled 4 days away proceeding on date is high (~85-90%). Calendar lists Oct 27 Knesset election (medium confidence) and Israeli official on Oct 15 referenced elections in 12 days (=Oct 27) with deterrence warning, corroborated by Macron citing upcoming Israeli elections as context. No evidence of nationwide postponement/cancellation or snap election before date; theater shows ongoing Gaza/West Bank volatility but no election disruption signal. Short window leaves little time for institutional postponement.","theaters":["thr_gaza_war_and_unga_diplomatic_fallout"]},{"market_id":"4890262","question":"Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory","resolved_at":"2026-10-27","outcome":"no","ours":0.04,"market":0.0655,"made_at":"2026-10-21","brier_ours":0.0016,"brier_market":0.0043,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for a 40-point first-round margin in Bulgarian/European presidential elections is very low (single digits) - even dominant winners like Radev 2021 won by ~27 points. No evidence in desk record provides polling, candidate field, or momentum for Iliana Iotova to imply a historic landslide; only the election date is confirmed [calendar:cal-bfe2e30caf51c205]. With 4 days to election and no signal of a collapsed opposition field, stay near base rate. Would move sharply up only with credible pre-election polls showing Iotova >55% and second place <15%.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite","thr_spot_japan_s_phobos_sample_return_mission"]},{"market_id":"5340072","question":"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-margin-of-victory","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"yes","ours":0.25,"market":0.175,"made_at":"2026-10-22","brier_ours":0.5625,"brier_market":0.6806,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for any specific narrow-win bracket (<4% for a specific candidate) is low - unconditional ~20-25% even in polarized Brazil, since it requires both winning and a close margin. Evidence confirms only that the Oct 25 runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro and is roughly even, with no polling on margin provided, so little to move from base rate. With 3 days to election, a Lula win by <4% remains one of several plausible outcomes but not the modal one.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5340069","question":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-margin-of-victory","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"no","ours":0.1,"market":0.0705,"made_at":"2026-10-22","brier_ours":0.01,"brier_market":0.005,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a specific candidate winning by a specific 4pp margin bucket (8-12%) in a Brazilian runoff is low (~10-15% unconditional: ~50% to win x ~20-25% for that margin conditional on winning). Evidence confirms only that the second round is Oct 25 between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro with no polling on margin, so no reason to move far from base rate. Short window (3 days) leaves little time for new information to justify a large shift; credible polls showing Flavio +10 would raise it sharply.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5340071","question":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-margin-of-victory","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"no","ours":0.22,"market":0.41,"made_at":"2026-10-22","brier_ours":0.0484,"brier_market":0.1681,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for a specific candidate winning a Brazilian runoff by <4% is low (~15-20%): most dated 'win by X margin' questions resolve NO and only ~2 of last 3 runoffs were decided by <4%. Evidence confirms the runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1483f4c8fc08a40c][daily:2026-10-17:thr_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low] and describes continuity as 'roughly even' implying ~50% win chance, but provides no polling on margin. P(Flavio wins narrowly)=P(win)*P(<4%|win) ~0.5*0.4-0.5 ≈0.20-0.25. No polling to move far from base rate; 3 days left leaves little time for new information.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"4824600","question":"Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/serbia-parliamentary-election-winner-2026","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"no","ours":0.82,"market":0.675,"made_at":"2026-10-22","brier_ours":0.6724,"brier_market":0.4556,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for SNS winning most seats is very high - it has won every Serbian parliamentary election since 2012, usually with outright majorities under the 250-seat d'Hondt PR system [clm_b0e90d64bf]. The list in the question is confirmed as the SNS-led 'Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija' [clm_ff6d68151e] contesting the snap election on 2026-10-25 [calendar:cal-1c8c8b4a31f51c7a] called after Vučić's resignation [clm_b8bb8e8cae]. No evidence in the desk record points to a polling surge, united opposition lead, or cancellation that would overturn incumbency advantage with 3 days left; credible polls showing opposition ahead would lower this.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"4824602","question":"Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/serbia-parliamentary-election-winner-2026","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"yes","ours":0.08,"market":0.325,"made_at":"2026-10-22","brier_ours":0.8464,"brier_market":0.4556,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for any opposition list winning most seats vs SNS in Serbia is very low (~5-10%) - SNS has won every parliamentary election since 2012 with majorities. Evidence confirms SNS and allies are the incumbent bloc facing Students Win [clm_bf6a6600bd] in a 250-seat d'Hondt PR election needing 126 for majority [clm_b0e90d64bf] on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1c8c8b4a31f51c7a], with structural media bias alleged to favor the Vučić-led SNS list [clm_0c26964011]. No evidence provided shows Students Win leading in polls or seats with 3 days to go. Would need credible polling showing Students Win plurality to move materially above base rate.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5329577","question":"Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-in-amapa","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"yes","ours":0.52,"market":0.335,"made_at":"2026-10-23","brier_ours":0.2304,"brier_market":0.4422,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for a two-candidate second-round state race is ~50%. No Amapá-specific polling is provided; the only relevant evidence confirms the runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1483f4c8fc08a40c][daily:2026-10-17:thr_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low]. Lula won Amapá in 2022 but lost it in 2018, and incumbency/deforestation record gives a slight continuity signal, but without state polling cannot justify large deviation from 50%. Would move sharply with Amapá poll or first-round Amapá result.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5329576","question":"Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-in-amapa","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"no","ours":0.47,"market":0.67,"made_at":"2026-10-23","brier_ours":0.2209,"brier_market":0.4489,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for winning a specific swing state in a national toss-up is ~50%. National runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1483f4c8fc08a40c] and described as neck-and-neck after Lula trailed by ~2% in first round [claim:clm_996d55c6cd][daily:2026-10-17:thr_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low]. No Amapá-specific polling is provided, so stay near 50%, with slight discount for Flavio because Amapá narrowly went to Lula in 2022 and is a northern state where Lula incumbency retains edge. Two days to election leaves little time for new information to shift state-level odds.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5336146","question":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fall-elections-three-way-brazil-israel-us-senate-combo","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"no","ours":0.03,"market":0.365,"made_at":"2026-10-20","brier_ours":0.0009,"brier_market":0.1332,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for a specific three-way parlay (Brazil runoff Oct 25, Israel Knesset Oct 27, US Senate Nov 3) is very low - product of three independent ~30-50% events is ~3-5% even before evidence. Desk has no polling or outcome evidence for any leg, only calendar confirmation that elections are scheduled and that Brazil is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro runoff. With no information to move away from base rates and 15 days to resolution, joint YES remains unlikely; would need polling showing Flavio leading, Eizenkot coalition path, and Democratic Senate map advantage to raise it.","theaters":["thr_sudan_civil_war_and_us_visa_leverage","thr_us_iran_houthi_confrontation_over_hormuz_and_red","thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"5340070","question":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-margin-of-victory","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"no","ours":0.14,"market":0.335,"made_at":"2026-10-22","brier_ours":0.0196,"brier_market":0.1122,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for any specific 4-point margin bucket (4-8%) in a two-candidate runoff is low (~10-15% unconditional) since win probability is split between two candidates and then across multiple margin buckets. Evidence only confirms the runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1483f4c8fc08a40c][daily:2026-10-17:thr_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low] with 3 days left and provides no polling on vote share or margin. With no information to favor Flavio winning specifically by 4-8% vs losing or winning by other margins, stay near base rate. Credible late polls showing Flavio ahead by ~6% would raise it sharply; polls showing Lula ahead or a blowout would lower it.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"601826","question":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"no","ours":0.5,"market":0.8005,"made_at":"2026-10-25","brier_ours":0.25,"brier_market":0.6408,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for a two-candidate runoff is ~50%. Evidence shows Oct 25 runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro with first-round ~2% lead for Flavio but current polls neck-and-neck after Lula trailed [dev:d3dc3fe6ea61][claim:prof_intel_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low_daily_20261017:clm_996d55c6cd], implying no clear favorite on election day. With voting today and no results in evidence, probability stays near coin-flip; official TSE count would resolve uncertainty.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"601819","question":"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"yes","ours":0.48,"market":0.205,"made_at":"2026-10-25","brier_ours":0.2704,"brier_market":0.632,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for an incumbent in a runoff is near 50%. Evidence shows Lula trailed Flávio Bolsonaro by ~2% in Oct 4 first round and polls were neck-and-neck nine days before Oct 25 runoff [dev:d3dc3fe6ea61][entity:person:luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva], with resolution due Oct 26 [calendar:cal-6394fd15cba7163f]. Slight underdog status from first-round deficit offsets incumbency, leaving a toss-up slightly below 50%. Actual Oct 25 vote count would move this sharply.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"5686979","question":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"yes","ours":0.82,"market":0.955,"made_at":"2026-10-19","brier_ours":0.0324,"brier_market":0.002,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a direct US air/missile strike on Iran in any 3-day window is low (~10-15% even in crises) so YES starts ~85-90%. Current theater shows critical but stable pressure - IRGC mine enforcement and Houthi intercepts continue but outlook is 'steady gradual pressure' absent a new mass-casualty trigger or US decision to join strikes, with no evidence of imminent US strike on Iran itself. Short 3-day window to Oct 22 leaves little time for escalation to cross the narrow qualifying-action threshold (direct impact on Iran). Would lower sharply on verified US strike planning, mass-casualty Houthi/Iran attack on US assets, or White House authorization signals.","theaters":["thr_us_iran_houthi_confrontation_over_hormuz_and_red","thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"3741671","question":"Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-any-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260819","resolved_at":"2026-10-26","outcome":"yes","ours":0.08,"market":0.175,"made_at":"2026-10-21","brier_ours":0.8464,"brier_market":0.6806,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic meeting in any 10-day window is low (~5-10%); status quo is no talks. Evidence shows escalation not diplomacy: Oct 19-20 strikes damaged >10 energy facilities and 550k families cut off with 76 hits in a week and energy ceasefire collapsed, Pulse Diplomatic Rupture 62/severe with no announced meeting or mediator track in evidence. With only 10 days to Oct 31 and no calendar/statement signaling talks, stay near base rate; a sudden US/Turkey-mediated contact would raise probability.","theaters":["thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite","thr_sudan_civil_war_and_us_visa_leverage"]},{"market_id":"3187537","question":"Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-january-31","resolved_at":"2026-10-25","outcome":"yes","ours":0.32,"market":0.24,"made_at":"2026-10-23","brier_ours":0.4624,"brier_market":0.5776,"ours_closer":true,"rationale":"Base rate for an exiled/hiding opposition figure physically re-entering Venezuela in a 69-day window is low (~10%). Evidence suggests a claimed US intervention/capture of Venezuela's leadership on Oct 15 [st_68e25d1020f6], condemned by Russia [st_79d8cdf6133e] and described as invasion [st_760ec84065ec], which if true would sharply raise return likelihood. But these are delegate statements, not confirmed credible reporting of regime change or of Machado's location/plans, and no evidence shows she is poised to enter, so move only modestly above base rate. Would rise sharply with confirmed Maduro removal and Machado departure announcement.","theaters":[]},{"market_id":"3081959","question":"Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-russia-decision-in-october-20260724021538830","resolved_at":"2026-10-23","outcome":"yes","ours":0.55,"market":0.87,"made_at":"2026-10-23","brier_ours":0.2025,"brier_market":0.0169,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a scheduled central bank meeting is to leave rates unchanged (historically ~55-65% of meetings are holds), and most dated 'will X happen' questions resolve to status quo. The desk provides no evidence on Russian inflation, guidance, or expectations for the Oct 23, 2026 Bank of Russia meeting - theaters cover CSTO/Ukraine war, calendars cover BoE/ECB, statements cover diplomacy - so there is no earned move away from base rate. With the decision due today (0 days left) and the resolution rule defaulting to 'No Change' if no release appears, staying near the hold base rate is warranted; a cut/hike cycle in Russia adds uncertainty but no directional signal is in evidence.","theaters":["thr_spot_armenia_s_de_facto_exit_from_the_csto","thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]},{"market_id":"3081958","question":"Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-russia-decision-in-october-20260724021538830","resolved_at":"2026-10-23","outcome":"no","ours":0.33,"market":0.14,"made_at":"2026-10-23","brier_ours":0.1089,"brier_market":0.0196,"ours_closer":false,"rationale":"Base rate for a rate cut at any single Bank of Russia meeting is low (~30-35% vs hold/hike), and status-quo holds most often. Desk provides no direct evidence on inflation, CBR guidance, or rate expectations for the Oct 23 meeting - theaters cover war/diplomacy not monetary policy. With 0 days left, would move sharply on CBR press release/forward guidance, but on current information stay near base rate.","theaters":["thr_spot_armenia_s_de_facto_exit_from_the_csto","thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite"]}],"other":{"watches":{"open":19,"triggered":11,"expired":0,"invalidated":0,"trigger_rate":1,"note":"A watch is a condition, not a probability: it can be hit-rated but not Brier-scored."},"judgments":{"resolved":0,"void":0,"open":10,"brier":null,"calibration":[]}},"rules":{"bankroll":10000,"edge_min":0.1,"kelly_fraction":0.25,"max_position_frac":0.05,"max_exposure_frac":0.5,"slippage":0.01,"min_for_verdict":30}},"meta":{"as_of":"2026-10-31T01:27:28+00:00","source":"ohmega.track-record/2","version":"v1","cite_as":"https://ohmega.monster/intel/track-record","license":"Ohmega claims, summaries, grades, Pulses and forecasts may be quoted with a link to cite_as. Source texts belong to their publishers; follow the source URLs. No warranty: readings are our assessment as of as_of, not guarantees.","verification":"ohmega_derived","note":"Paper trading only. These are Ohmega's own probability forecasts compared with a prediction market's prices; no money is staked and nothing here is financial advice. trader is an agent-managed paper portfolio started from the same bankroll as the rule-based baseline (portfolio): trader.curve gives each day's equity for both and the flat bankroll, trader.log every buy, sell and settlement with its reason. Probabilities are 0..1. Forecasts are made blind to the market price and stored immutably; the Brier score is the mean squared error (lower is better, 0.25 is a constant 50%); brier_skill is 1 - ours/market on the same markets (positive means we beat the market). Until 30 markets are compared the scores are noise: read scores.verdict. fast is the same trader on markets that settle within days, decided every few hours (its own bankroll, same shape as trader). evidence says how the corpus served the bots: coverage (sufficient, thin or gap, as the bot rated its own evidence), citations, tools, top_gaps (what they asked the corpus for) and accuracy split by evidence richness (withheld until a group has enough resolved items). horizons gives forecast accuracy by time to resolution."}}